With two and a half months to go before Election Day, the presidential race remains firmly in play. Many polls have placed Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck-and-neck both nationally and in key swing states. But as we’ve learned in previous elections, it’s far too early to know who will win.
The most important factor in this contest is what happens in the Electoral College. Each state (except Maine and Nebraska) gets a number of electoral votes equal to the number of seats it has in the House of Representatives and Senate. The winner of the Electoral College becomes President of the United States.
In the first debate, Biden has clearly gained ground – though it’s unclear whether his advantage will last. One reason for this is that the debate was largely a discussion of domestic issues, whereas most of the other debates have focused on foreign policy.
The other is that a lot of voters still don’t know who Kamala Harris is. A great deal of her time in the debate was spent explaining who she is and what she stands for.
This will have to continue. If Harris can fill in the “never heard of” category in some places, it will make a big difference in her ability to compete with Trump in battleground states. At the same time, she has to get her message out in a way that will appeal to Republicans who are skeptical of her and have been repelled by some of the nativist rhetoric of her campaign.